In general, current AG projection can be said not to deviate much from the CBS forecast, which means that differences in future State Pension and standard retirement ages will not be very large. 8.6 Effects on provisions In order to analyse the effects of Projections Life Table AG2018 on the technical provisions of pension portfolios six fictitious example funds have been constructed. Three of the funds have male participants and three have female participants. For both sexes a young, an old and an average funds has been constructed. The average fund is the average of the first two funds. These example funds were partly based on actual portfolios. Besides an old age pension the example funds contain a latent survivor’s pension and a survivor’s pension in payment. For male portfolios spouses receiving survivor’s benefits are assumed to be females. For female portfolios the opposite applies. The benefits used are a retirement benefit commencing at age 65 and an “unspecified partner” type survivor’s benefit with a partner frequency of 100%. A fixed age gap of 3 years is assumed between male and female partners, the male partner being assumed older than the female. The effects are shown for interest rates 3 and 1%, so that the effects can be compared to the previous publication (AG2016). Effect Technical Provision 3% interest rate Young OP (65) NP OP+NP 1% interest rate Young OP (65) NP OP+NP Males Females Average Old Young Average Old -0.8% -0.7% -0.6% -2.0% -1.9% -1.8% -1.2% -1.4% -1.5% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% -0.9% -0.9% -0.9% -1.3% -1.2% -1.2% Old Average Young Average Old -1.0% -0.9% -0.8% -2.5% -2.3% -2.2% -1.8% -1.9% -2.0% 3.5% 2.8% 2.5% -1.2% -1.2% -1.2% -1.7% -1.6% -1.6% Table 8.7 Impact on model portfolio provisions of a transition from AG2016 to AG2018 (difference AG2018 minus AG2016 expressed as percentage of AG2016). The separate percentages as listed for OAP and SP do not add up to the percentages listed for the OAP+SP combination. This is caused by the difference in the provisions for the separate benefits Table 8.7 indicates that the differences, in terms of provision, for men are limited. For an average portfolio the provision will be reduced by about 1%. For women the impact is higher (average reduction of 1.2 and 1.6% respectively). At 1% interest the low interest rate creates an additional impact. In table 8.8 the impact of AG2016 to AG2018 is split into 2 steps: • Data update to ‘AG2017’, i.e. adding EU15 en NL16; • Data update to AG2018, adding EU16 en NL17. Projection Table AG2018 Results 27
29 Online Touch Home