5 DATA 5.1 Dutch and European data are input for the Projection model AG2020 The current Projection model AG2020 uses similar data as Projection model AG2018. This implies that, additional to mortality in the Netherlands, data are used on the mortality developments in a number of other European countries. Since 1970 a decrease in the differences in mortality probabilities between these European countries is clearly discernible. Also, the period life expectancies in these countries have shown similar upward trends for decades. Please refer to graphs 5.1 and 5.2. In view of these apparent similarities, as of Projection model AG2014 the choice was made to expand the basis for the Dutch projections to the developments in these European countries. This prevents the forecast from being solely dependent on Dutch data that may include specific historical fluctuations that may not be indicative of future developments. The view is, that the long term increase of life expectancy in the Netherlands can be more accurately predicted by including a broader European population, as this vastly expands the number of observations: from just over 100,000 deaths annually in the Netherlands to over 2,000,000 deaths per year for the included European countries, rendering the model more robust. Consecutive projections are expected to be more stable than when using only Dutch data. 5.2 European mortality data: countries with an above-average GDP The projection model uses European mortality data from countries with an above-average Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is seen as a measure for a country’s prosperity. A positive correlation exists between prosperity and ageing: the higher the prosperity level, the older people get. The Netherlands is a high prosperity country with a GDP above the European average. Based on this criterion, the following European countries have been included: Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, Ireland, Iceland, Luxembourg, Norway, Austria, United Kingdom, Sweden and Switzerland. In this publication the aforementioned countries together are referred to as “Europe” or “Western Europe”. The selection of countries was first performed for the publication of the Projection model AG2014. As time passes, other countries may also meet the above-average GDP selection criterion, or countries may cease to do so. In the creation of AG2020 the criterion still generates the same set of countries. Projections Life Table AG2020 Data 14
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