explore this further and also explain what the effect of this lagging (compared to other European countries) is on the Projection model AG2020. 5.4 Observed mortality has increased in recent years In the publication of Projection model AG2020, attention was given to excess mortality in the years 2016 and 2017 as a result of, among other causes, a wave of influenza in the 2016/2017 season. This led to mortality higher than was to be expected based on Projection model AG2016, in particular for higher ages. This was true for the Netherlands as well as for the selection of European countries. For observation years 2017 and 2018 mortality continues to be higher than expected for higher ages in particular. This too can be partly attributed to the flu season 2017/2018. Mortality caused by influenza has been above average in recent years not only in the Netherlands, but also in other European countries1,2. A strong increase or decrease of mortality in the Netherlands often coincides with a strong increase or decrease in other European countries. This can be seen in the bar charts in graphs 5.3 and 5.4. These represent the numbers of deaths per year in The Netherlands and in Europe. Mortality in 2018 in the over 65 age group is shown to be higher than in previous years. For men this shows in The Netherlands and in Europe, for women it is most prominent in The Netherlands. 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 Age 0 to 65 age 65 to 80 age 80 thru 90 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 – Age 0 to 65 age 65 to 80 age 80 thru 90 Graph 5.3 Number of deaths male (x1,000) in The Netherlands (left) and in Europe (right) in the years 2012 – 2018 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 Age 0 to 65 age 65 to 80 age 80 thru 90 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 – Age 0 to 65 age 65 to 80 age 80 thru 90 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Graph 5.4 Number of deaths female (x1,000) in The Netherlands (left) and in Europe (right) in the years 2012 – 2018 1 – CBS (2018), ‘Meer sterfgevallen in wintermaanden’, CBS. URL visited May 18th, 2020. 2 – EuroMOMO (2020), Graphs and Maps, EuroMOMO. URL visited May 18th, 2020. Projections Life Table AG2020 5.5 Data sources: Human Mortality Database, Eurostat and CBS The data were obtained from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), supplemented with data from Eurostat for years and countries missing in HMD. The 2019 data for the Netherlands was obtained from CBS. The Eurostat data were adapted as required to ensure consistency with HMD. This applies to the 2018 mortality probabilities for the overseas territories of France, see appendix C. Data 16
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