2 JUSTIFICATION Mortality Research Committee Monitoring the development of mortality in the Netherlands and developing projections of this has traditionally been an important task of the Royal Dutch Actuarial Association. An expression of this is the long series of period and projections life tables the Association has published. In 2011, the Board of the Association set up the Mortality Research Committee and assigned it the task of publishing a new Projections table every two years, which was to serve as the basis for estimating the future life expectancy of the population of the Netherlands. In 2014, a model was implemented which, in addition to the mortality projections, also reflects the uncertainty in the projection of this model (a so-called stochastic model). This resulted in the publication of Projections Life Table AG2014. Projections Life Table AG2016 is based on the same model as Projections Life Table AG2014, with a number of changes to the data used and the method of estimation. In particular, the correlation between the development of mortality amongst men and women was modelled. After the publication of Projections Life Table AG2016 a number of aspects have undergone further research, but this has not led to any model adjustments. Thus, AG2018 was based on the same model as AG2016. In the past two years further analyses have been performed, that have led to some model adjustments. These adjustments have made the model more robust and this model is the basis for AG2020. The committee consists of members with an academic background, members from the pensions and insurance sector with a technical background and members from these sectors with a managerial background. Mid 2020, the Mortality Research Committee consists of the following members: B.L. de Boer AAG, chair drs. C.A.M. van Iersel AAG CERA, secretary prof. dr. B. Melenberg drs. J. de Mik CFA AAG drs. E.J. Slagter FRM prof. dr. ir. M.H. Vellekoop, vice chair ir. R.E.J.M. Waucomont AAG M.A. van Wijk MSc AAG ir. drs. M.R. van der Winden AAG MBA AG Projections Life Tables Working Group The Mortality Research Committee set up the Association’s Projections Life Tables Working Group at the end of 2012 with the task of supporting the Committee in the development of projection tables. Mid 2020, the Working Group consists of the following members: M.J.A. Klein MSc AAG, chair F. van Berkum PhD F.J. Cuijpers MSc AAG ir. drs. J.H. Tornij J.I. Tol MSc AAG Drs. B.G. ter Veer AAG W. van Wel MSc K. Wittekoek MSc In performing its task, the Working Group has carried out various analyses to obtain Projections Life Table AG2020. These analyses have deepened the Working Group’s insights and resulted in model adjustments. The Mortality Research Committee has validated the Projections Life Table AG2020 as set by the Working Group. Projections Life Table AG2020 Justification 7
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