processes together, it is necessary to apply the same historic data period. European observations for 2015 have therefore been extrapolated on the basis of the data available up to and including 2014 (see Appendix A). For higher ages (above the age of 90 years), there are relatively few observations. This can result in large fluctuations in the estimates of mortality probabilities. For this reason, the mortality tables are ‘closed’. This means that for ages over 90, the mortality probabilities are estimated using an extrapolation method. As in the case of the previous projection life table, the Kannistö method was chosen for Projection Table AG2016. Appendix A contains a full description of the stochastic model used, including the method used to estimate this model. In combination with the dataset. Projection Table AG2016 can be reconstructed exactly. Amendment relative to the model from 2014 The correlations between men and women are also included now in the estimates of the AG2016 model. In the previous model, the stochastic processes a) and b) for men mentioned earlier were estimated jointly, as were processes c) and d) for women. However, the processes for men, on the one hand, and women, on the other hand, were estimated separately from each other. In simulating future scenarios, the correlations between these processes were therefore set at nil. The data, however, suggests a positive correlation between the developments in mortality rates of men and women. Intuitively this is logical. It enhances the quality of the projection life table if these correlations are included in the estimate of the model. The modelling of the correlation between the four processes is improved by estimating them together and including all the correlations between the processes a), b) and d) referred to above. The correlations between the various processes are represented in the following diagram: European men -0.27 (AG2014: 0,51) 0.45 Netherlands deviation men 0.92 0.39 -0.21 (AG2014: -0.15) European women 0.57 Netherlands deviation women The correlation between (the annual changes in relation to) West-European men and the deviation of men in the Netherlands relative to West Europe is positive. In the case of women, this correlation is negative, but this does not mean that the correlation between changes in relation to West-European women and women in the Netherlands is negative. A negative correlation may be the consequence of changes in mortality in the Netherlands which generally have the same sign as changes in West Europe, but on average are less large. If there has been a large positive change in West Europe and a smaller positive change for the Netherlands, the difference (i.e. the change in the Netherlands less the change in West Europe) is, after all, negative. The effect of these changes on life expectancy has been made visible separately in chapter 8. Projection Table AG2016 Mortality data and assumptions of the model 15
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