On the basis of the Projection Table AG2016, L is expected to increase to such a degree that in 2018 a standard retirement age of 68 years will apply. The most recent projection by Statistics Netherlands dating from 2015 shows that this increase will be necessary in 2019. At the latest on 1 January 2017, in accordance with the Act, a decision will have to be taken with regard to any increase in the standard retirement age in 2018 on the basis of the most recent forecast by Statistics Netherlands. In general, it can be concluded that the Association’s present projections do not deviate much from the projections by Statistics Netherlands, as a result of which the present expectation is that differences in future State Pension age (AOW) and retirement pensions will not be very great. 8.6 Effects on the provisions In order to analyse the effects of Projection Table AG2016 on the technical provisions of pension portfolios, six sample funds were constructed. These are three funds with male members and three funds with female members. For each sex, a young, old and average fund was constructed. The last fund is the average of the first two funds. These sample funds were determined partly on the basis of concrete portfolios. In addition to a retirement pension, the sample funds contain a latent survivor’s pension and a survivor’s pension in payment. In the case of the male portfolios, it is assumed that payments of the survivor’s pension in payment relate to female partners. In the case of the female portfolios, the opposite is the case. The types of pension used are a retirement pension, commencing at the age of 65, and a survivor’s pension of the ‘unspecified partner’ form with a partner frequency of 100%. A fixed age difference of three years between the male and female partner is assumed, whereby it is also assumed that the male is older than the female. The actuarial discount rate applied amounts to 3%, so that the effects are comparable to the previous publication (AG2014), in which an interest rate of 3% was assumed. Cover RP (65) SP RP+SP Men Young -0.1% 1.4% 0.3% Average -0.2% 1.1% 0.2% Old -0.2% 0.8% 0.1% Women Young 1.0% -1.6% 0.6% Average 0.7% -1.0% 0.5% Old 0.6% -0.7% 0.4% Table 7 Impact on the provisions (actuarial discount rate 3%) for the model portfolios for the transition from AG2014 to AG2016 (difference AG2016 minus AG2014, expressed as a percentage of AG2014). The separate percentages, as stated in relation to the types of pension, retirement pension and survivor’s pension, do not add up to the percentages, as stated in the combination of a retirement pension and survivor’s pension. This is because the provisions of the various types of pension are different. ■ RP = retirement pension SP = survivor’s pension Although the retirement age has now been increased to 67 years, large parts of the pension liabilities are still based on a retirement age of 65. It is possible to conclude from table 7 that the differences, in terms of the provision, are small in the case of men. In the case of an average dataset, the provision increases by approximately 0.2%. In the case of women, the impact is greater (an average increase of 0.5%). Depending on the composition of the pension fund, the increase will amount to a minimum of 0.1% and a maximum of 0.6% on the basis of an actuarial discount rate of 3%. Projection Table AG2016 Outcomes 24
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