Since the correlation for the European trend is large and positive (about 90%), compensatory effects arise in the simulation when determining the value of the Provision for Pension Liabilities for the survivor’s pension. By way of illustration, graphs 6 and 7 show the distribution of the simulated values for the retirement pension, survivor’s pension and the combination of both types of pension relative to the best estimate. This relates to the model portfolio for men (average) and an actuarial discount rate of 3%. Graph 6 shows the distribution for AG2016, graph 7 for AG2014. Distribution of the Provision for Pension Liabilities in accordance with AG2016 Combination Survivor’s pension Retirement pension 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% Graph 6 Distribution of outcomes for the simulation of the provision (actuarial discount rate 3%) for the model portfolio of men (average) around the best estimate Distribution of the Provision for Pension Liabilities in accordance with AG2014 Combination Survivor’s pension Retirement pension 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% Graph 7 Distribution of outcomes for the simulation of the provision (actuarial discount rate 3%) for the model portfolio of men (average) around the best estimate in accordance with AG2014 Projection Table AG2016 Applications of the model 28
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