Graph 9 below shows the uncertainty in cohort life expectancy of men and women in the Netherlands in 2016. Life expectancy of the population of the Netherlands 2016 105 100 95% confidence interval Women Men 95 90 85 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Present age Graph 9 Confidence interval around the best estimate of cohort life expectancy for men and women in the Netherlands in 2016 Graph 9 shows that the uncertainty decreases as age increases. This is due to the fact that the number of years for which an estimate is made decreases as age increases. In addition, the fact that life expectancy first decreases up to an age of approximately 60 years and then increases is visible. Two effects play a role in this. A person who is older has already survived a period, as a result of which life expectancy increases with age. In addition, someone who is younger will benefit more from expected future improvements in mortality. It should be noted that in the confidence intervals shown we only take into account uncertainty in future mortality probabilities and do not consider individuals. Since the mortality probabilities for (for instance) a 90-year-old change little over time, we observe hardly any differences in his or her expected age at death if we simulate all sorts of possible future scenarios with our model. However, this means, of course, that the moment of death of an individual 90-year-old is known now. Little uncertainty in mortality probabilities above this age does not imply, after all, that there is little uncertainty about the actual moment of death for an individual. Projection Table AG2016 Applications of the model 30 Life expectancy
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