5. Dataset used for calibration The parameter values in the model are determined using maximum likelihood. In doing so, mortality figures and exposures in West-European countries and in the Netherlands were used. In all cases it was assumed that for the given exposures the observed deaths2 have a Poisson distribution and that the expectation of is equal to the force of mortality to be modelled. We have suppressed sex and the designations EUR/NL in this notation. The table below shows which data source was used per geographic area and per year as the input for the AG2016 model. The data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) was supplemented for the years after 2011 by data from the Eurostat database3 (EUROS). For the Dutch data for 2015, the database4 of Statistics Netherlands was used (Statline). In the last two databases, we find the required numbers of deaths per sex but not the exposures. However, these can be deduced from other quantities which are given: : the population on 1 January in the year aged between and : the number of people who died in the year , who would be between and +1 years old on 31 December of year . Conversion to exposures occurs using the method determined in the protocols5 of the Human Mortality Database. This gives for : and for : 2 Brouhns, N., Denuit, M. and Vermunt, J.K. (2002) A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 31, pp. 373-393. 3 demo_pjan (population P) downloaded on 03/03/2016 from: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migration-projections/population-data/database and demo_mager (sterfte C) / demo_magec (sterfte D) downloaded on 18/03/2016 from: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migration-projections/deaths-life-expectancy-data/database 4 Definitive mortality figures for 2015, see http://statline.cbs.nl/Statweb/publication/?DM=SLNL&PA=37168&D1=a&D2=1-2&D3=0%2c56162&D4=0&D5=60-64&HDR=G3%2cT%2cG1&STB=G2%2cG4&VW=T 5 See http://www.mortality.org/Public/Docs/MethodsProtocol.pdf Projection Table AG2016 Appendix A 34
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