2 JUSTIFICATION Mortality Research Committee Monitoring the development of mortality in the Netherlands and developing projections of this has traditionally been an important task of the Royal Dutch Actuarial Association. This is expressed in the long series of period mortality and life tables which the Association has published. In 2011, the Board of the Association set up the Mortality Research Committee and assigned it the task of publishing a new projection life table every two years, which was to serve as the basis for estimating the future life expectancy of the population of the Netherlands. In 2014, a model was implemented which, in addition to the mortality projection, also reflects the uncertainty in this model (a so-called stochastic model). This resulted in the publication of AG2014. During the past two years, the Mortality Research Committee has drawn up Projection Table AG2016. This projection life table is based on the same model as AG2014, with a number of changes to the data used and the method of estimation. In particular, AG2016 offers an insight into the correlation between the development of mortality amongst men and women. By doing so, the Committee has taken the requests from the sector into account. A full overview of the changes in AG2016 relative to AG2014 can be found in chapter 6. The committee consists of members with an academic background, members from the pension and insurance sector with a technical background and members from these sectors with a policy background. The Mortality Research Committee consisted of the following members in mid-2016: B.L. de Boer AAG, Chairperson drs. W. de Boer AAG drs. C.A.M. van Iersel AAG CERA, Secretary drs. J. de Mik AAG dr. H.J. Plat AAG RBA dr. ir. T.J.W. Schulteis AAG prof. dr. ir. M.H. Vellekoop prof. dr. B.J.M. Werker ir. drs. M.R. van der Winden AAG MBA Projection Tables Working Group The Mortality Research Committee set up the Association’s Projection Tables Working Group at the end of 2012 with the task of supporting the Committee in the development of projection life tables. The Projection Tables Working Group consisted of the following members in mid-2016: H.K. Kan MSc AAG C.C. Loois MSc W.G. Ouburg MSc AAG FRM, Chairperson drs. E.J. Slagter FRM ir. drs. J.H. Tornij M.A. van Wijk MSc AAG 1 – Projection Table AG2014 of 9 September 2014 Projection Table AG2016 Within the framework of its task, the Working Group carried out various analyses in order to arrive at the AG2016 projection. On the basis of these analyses, the Mortality Research Committee made a number of choices which are explained in this publication. The definitive model was adopted on the basis of the choices made by the Mortality Research Committee. This model has been implemented and documented by the Working Group. Justification 5
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