3 CONTENTS 1 Foreword –3 2 Justification –5 3 Contents –7 4 Summary –9 5 Introduction –10 5.1 Biennial update of the estimate of mortality probabilities – 10 5.2 Developments in the method – 10 5.3 Definition of life expectancy – 10 5.4 Retirement age of the state old-age benefit (AOW) and the standard retirement age – 11 5.5 Structure of the report – 11 5.6 Publication of the projection tables on the Association’s website – 11 6 Mortality data and assumptions of the model –12 6.1 Mortality data – 12 6.2 Assumptions of the model – 14 6.3 Summary of the changes in the Projection Table AG2016 relative to AG2014 – 16 7 Uncertainty –17 7.1 Extrapolation from the past – 17 7.2 No parameter and model uncertainty – 17 7.3 Distinction between uncertainty in mortality probabilities and uncertainty in mortality figures – 18 8 Outcomes –19 8.1 Observations in relation to AG2014 – 19 8.2 From AG2014 to AG2016 – 20 8.3 Future life expectancy – 21 8.4 Projection in perspective – 21 8.5 Link between life expectancy at the age of 65 and the retirement age in the first and second tiers – 23 8.6 Effects on the provisions – 24 9 Applications of the model –26 9.1 Simulating the value of the liabilities – 27 9.2 Simulating the best-estimate value in a year’s time – 29 9.3 Simulating life expectancy – 29 10 Appendices –31 Appendix A – Projection Model AG2016 - Technical description – 32 Appendix B – Model portfolio – 40 Appendix C – Literature and data used – 42 Appendix D – Glossary – 43 Colophon –46 Projection Table AG2016 Contents 7
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