4 SUMMARY With the publication of the Projection Table AG2016, the Actuarial Association presented its most recent estimate of the future mortality of the population of the Netherlands. This estimate is based on both mortality data pertaining to the Netherlands and data pertaining to European countries that have a level of prosperity comparable to that of the Netherlands. The Projection Table AG2016 is based on a stochastic model. In comparison to the Projection Table AG2014, an estimate is also given of the correlation between the development of the mortality of men and women. The Projection Table AG2016 replaces Projection Table AG2014. From the most recent data it appears that mortality for both men and women is still falling and that life expectancy is continuing to rise. On the basis of the most recent insights, the life expectancy of a girl born in 2016 is 93.0 years and that of a boy born in 2016 90.1 years. These life expectancies have been calculated on the basis of the socalled cohort life expectancy and take into account all the expected future developments in mortality. The life expectancy of boys and girls born in 50 years’ time is expected to rise further by 3 to 4 years. Pension funds and insurance companies may use the Projection Table AG2016 to determine and assess their technical provisions and premiums. The effects will not be the same for all portfolios. Their composition in terms of age and sex, in particular, will determine the effects on a specific portfolio. In general, it may be concluded that in the case of an actuarial discount rate of 3% in relation to portfolios with relatively many men, the technical provisions will increase slightly (0.2%) and in relation to portfolios with relatively many women the technical provisions will increase more (0.5%). At the aggregate level, the Projection Table AG2016 is more onerous than the Projection Table AG2014 in relation to technical provisions. If the Projection Table AG2016 were to be used to determine the State Pension age (AOW) on the next occasion that it is determined (2017), on the basis of present legislation the State Pension age in 2022 is expected to increase further to 67 years and three months. Projection Table AG2016 Summary 9
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