6 MORTALITY DATA AND MODEL ASSUMPTIONS 6.1 Dutch and European mortality The current Projection model AG2018 is equal to Projection model AG2016. This implies that, additional to mortality in The Netherlands, data is used on the mortality developments in a number of other European countries. Since 1970 a decrease in the differences in mortality probabilities between these European countries is clearly discernable. Also, the period life expectancies in these countries have shown similar upward trends for decades. Please refer to graphs 6.1 and 6.2 for representations of this. In view of these clear similarities the choice was made to partly base the Dutch projections on developments in these European countries. This prevents the forecast from depending only on Dutch data, in which specific fluctuations may have occurred in the past that may not be relevant to future developments. The thought is that the long term increase in life expectancy in The Netherlands can be predicted more precisely by including a broader European population, because it strongly increases the number of observations: from over 100,000 deaths annually in The Netherlands to over 2,000,000 deaths per year for the included European countries. This makes the model more robust. The expectation is that subsequent projections are more stable than they would be if only Dutch data were used. European mortality data The projection model uses European mortality data from countries with an above-average Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is seen as a measure for a country’s prosperity. A positive correlation exists between prosperity and ageing: the higher the prosperity level, the older people get. The Netherlands is a high prosperity country with a GDP above the European average. Based on this criterion, the following European countries have been included: Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, Ireland, Iceland, Luxembourg, Norway, Austria, United Kingdom, Sweden and Switzerland. In this publication the aforementioned countries together are referred to as “Europe” or “Western Europe”. Data range Since 1970 a stable development can be seen in mortality probabilities for both men and women (see also graphs 6.1 and 6.2). For modelling, data is used from the observation period 1970 through 2016. For The Netherlands the most recent 2017 mortality probabilities are available and hence added. By selecting this timeframe historical data from a 47 year long period is used. Projection Table AG2018 Mortality data and model assumptions 12
14 Online Touch Home