Number of deaths Number of deaths The Netherlands, males (1,000) 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 Age 0 to 65 Age 65 to 80 Age 80 thru 90 Number of deaths Europe, males (1,000) 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 Age 0 to 65 Age 65 to 80 Age 80 thru 90 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 Age 0 to 65 Age 65 to 80 Age 80 thru 90 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 Age 0 to 65 Age 65 to 80 Age 80 thru 90 Number of deaths Europe, females (1,000) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 The Netherlands, females (1,000) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Diagram 6.1 Number of deaths in The Netherlands and in Europe in the years 2012 – 2016. Data sources The data was obtained from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), supplemented with data from Eurostat for years and countries missing in HMD. The 2017 data for The Netherlands was obtained from CBS. The Eurostat data were adapted as required to insure consistency with HMD. This applies to the 2016 mortality probabilities for the overseas territories of France, see appendix C. The information from these sources is regularly supplemented and sometimes also adjusted retroactively for prior years. The data set used, in the shape of mortality frequencies and exposure for both The Netherlands and the complete group of Western European countries can be found on the AG website and totals more than 100 million deaths. 6.2 Model assumptions Fundamentals of model • The long term development of the Dutch life expectancy is based on the observed development of life expectancy in European countries with a GDP above the European average; • No separate cohort effects (such as the effects of smoking behaviour) are included, as this would considerably increase the complexity of the model; • For high ages mortality probabilities are extrapolated using Kannisto’s method; • Only data from the public domain has been used. The Projection model AG2016 was used, only adding two years’ observations. The Projection model AG2018 is a multi population mortality model as proposed by Lee an Li with a two tier approach to the estimation of the required parameters (see appendix A). In this approach the European trend is estimated by gender with the Lee-Carter model. Subsequently the Lee-Carter mortality model is used again to represent the deviations of The Netherlands from the common trend. By combining data from different, but similar countries the model becomes robust with more stable trends and a lower sensitivity to the calibration period used. Moreover, we explicitly consider the fact that we can never exactly observe mortality probabilities; we only have mortality frequencies at our disposal. This implies a certain ‘measurement noise’, also referred to as ‘Poisson noise’ in connection with the distribution we assume for the observed number of deaths. Projection Table AG2018 Mortality data and model assumptions 15
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