According to Projections Life Table AG2018 L will equal 20.70 in 2024, eliminating the need to raise the State Pension retirement age to 67 years and 6 months applying the formula above. This expectation concurs with the latest CBS forecast from 2017. By 1 January 2019 at the latest there will need to be clarity about the raise in 2024 based on the recent CBS forecast. Estimating the macro average remaining period life expectancy at age 65 for the years after 2024 reveals the following years in which the State Pension age is expected to increase by a full year4. Expected State Pension retirement age 68 69 70 71 CBS 2017-2060 2030 2039 2048 2057 AG2018 2029 2038 2047 2057 Table 8.6 Expected years in which the State Pension retirement age will have risen by a full year according to the latest CBS and AG projections The raising of the standard retirement age in the second tier is based on the same formula as for the State Pension retirement age, except that by law expected increases in life expectance are to be anticipated sooner. Legislation states that a change in the standard retirement age must be announced at least one year before it takes effect and that the macro average remaining life expectancy at age 65 expected ten years after the implementation of a change is to be considered. This means that, for instance, an adjustment to the standard retirement age in 2020 must be announced prior to 1 January 2019 and that this adjustment is to be based on the macro average remaining life expectancy at age 65 in 2030. Based on Projections Life Table AG2018 L is not expected to have risen in 2030 to such an extent that it would warrant a standard retirement age of 69 in 2020. A rise of the standard retirement age to 69 not expected before 2028. The developments of State Pension retirement age and standard retirement age based on Projections Life Table AG2018 are summarised in the graph below. 4 – For the sake of calculating simplicity the macro average remaining life expectancy is defined as the unweighted average of male and female life expectancy. In reality more precise weights would be allocated, giving women a slightly higher influence. The impact of this is marginal. Projection Table AG2018 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 Standard Retirement Age State Pension Age 2042 2046 2050 Graph 8.4 Development of State Pension retirement age and standard retirement age based on AG2018 Results 26
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