Effect Technical Provision Males 3% interest rate Young Average 1) AG2016 → "AG2017" → AG2016 → Old Females Young Average Old OAP (65) -1.0% -0.9% -0.8% -1.7% -1.6% -1.5% SP -0.5% -0.7% -1.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.4% "AG2017" OAP+SP -0.9% -0.9% -0.9% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% 2) OAP (65) 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% SP -0.7% -0.6% -0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% AG2018 OAP+NP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 1) + 2) OAP (65) -0.8% -0.7% -0.6% -2.0% -1.9% -1.8% SP -1.2% -1.4% -1.5% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% AG2018 OAP+SP -0.9% -0.9% -0.9% -1.3% -1.2% -1.2% Table 8.8 Impact on provisions for model portfolios of a transition from AG2016 to AG2018, with AG2017 as intermediate step This demonstrates that in the transition from AG2016 to AG2017 the increase in mortality probabilities has a significant impact. What stands out is, that for men the provision for both OAP and SP generally drops, while for women the SP provision goes up. Mortality probabilities have risen for men and women. For SP this means that payment starts earlier (increase), but then has a shorter payment period (decrease). The combination of both effects is different for male and female portfolios, because in general the increase of mortality probabilities is higher for women than for men. We also note that in tables 8.7 and 8.8 both latent SP and SP in payment are included and the change in technical provision values is dependent on both. Table 8.9 shows the effect on the separate benefits for various ages. Males 3% interest rate 25 45 65 85 1% interest rate 25 45 65 85 OAP Latent SP SP in payment OAP Females Latent SP SP in payment -1.3% 0.4% -0.5% -2.2% 8.4% -0.3% -1.2% -0.3% -0.8% -2.1% 5.8% -0.5% -0.5% -1.9% -1.4% -1.4% 4.1% -0.5% 0.3% -2.8% -1.5% -1.5% 2.6% 0.3% SP in OAP Latent SP payment OAP Latent SP SP in payment -1.5% -0.9% -0.9% -2.6% 8.2% -0.5% -1.3% -1.4% -1.3% -2.5% 5.7% -0.7% -0.6% -2.6% -1.7% -1.7% 4.0% -0.6% 0.3% -3.0% -1.6% -1.6% 2.6% 0.3% Table 8.9 Impact on provisions for individual benefits and ages of the transition from AG2016 to AG2018 (difference AG2018 minus AG2016 expressed as a percentage of AG2016) Projection Table AG2018 Results 28
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