Life expectancy in The Netherlands 2018 105 100 95% confidence interval Males Females 95 90 85 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Present Age Graph 9.2 Confidence interval around the best estimate cohort life expectancy of Dutch males and females in 2018 Graph 9.2 shows that uncertainty decreases as age increases. This follows from the fact that the number of years projected decreases as age goes up. Also visible is that life expectancy decreases until age 60 and increases after that. Two effects play their parts here. An older person has already survived a certain period, so life expectancy grows as one ages. On the other hand, a younger person will benefit more from expected future mortality improvements. Please note that the confidence intervals presented only include uncertainty in future mortality probabilities and do not apply to any single individual. As mortality probabilities for, for instance, a 90-year-old change very little over time, we observe hardly any differences for their expected age at death when we simulate all kinds of future scenarios with our model. But of course this does not mean that the actual moment of death for a 90-year-old individual is already fixed. Low uncertainty in mortality probabilities does not imply low uncertainty about the actual time of death of a single individual. 9.2 Simulations for obligations For each of the mortality probability scenarios described in paragraph 9.1 the value of obligations can be determined. By assessing all scenarios together a distribution of the value of obligations is obtained. Table 9.1 lists the average and 95%, 97.5 and 99.5% quantiles of the technical provision after simulating 10,000 such scenarios. The average male and female model portfolios were used at fixed interest rates of 3% and 1%. The results are expressed as a percentage of best estimate values. Projection Table AG2018 Applications of the model 31 Life expectancy

33 Online Touch Home

You need flash player to view this online publication