The graph shows that the confidence intervals for a one-year horizon are considerably smaller that those for the complete run off (see graph 9.1). The reason for this is, that for the one-year horizon only the uncertainty in the first projection year is included (including the impact of this first year on the parameters), while in graph 9.1 the uncertainty is represented across the whole run off period of the obligations. The graph below shows the uncertainty in cohort life expectancy of Dutch men and women in 2018, again over a one-year horizon. Life expectancy in The Netherlands 2018 105 100 95% confidence interval Males Females 95 90 85 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Present Age Graph 9.5 Confidence interval around the best estimate cohort life expectancy of Dutch males and females in 2018, one-year horizon Here too, the confidence intervals are shown to be significantly smaller for a one-year horizon, compared to those of the complete run off (see graph 9.2). Projection Table AG2018 Applications of the model 34 Life expectancy

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