2 JUSTIFICATION Mortality Research Committee Monitoring the development of mortality in the Netherlands and developing projections of this has traditionally been an important task of the Royal Dutch Actuarial Association. An expression of this is the long series of period and projections life tables the Association has published. In 2011, the Board of the Association set up the Mortality Research Committee and assigned it the task of publishing a new Projections table every two years, which was to serve as the basis for estimating the future life expectancy of the population of the Netherlands. In 2014, a model was implemented which, in addition to the mortality projections, also reflects the uncertainty in this model (a so-called stochastic model). This resulted in the publication of Projections Life Table AG20141. Projections Life Table AG2016 is based on the same model as Projections Life Table AG2014, with a number of changes to the data used and the method of estimation. In particular, the correlation between the development of mortality amongst men and women was modelled. After the publication of Projections Life Table AG2016 a number of aspects have undergone further research, but this has not led to any model adjustments. The committee consists of members with an academic background, members from the pensions and insurance sector with a technical background and members from these sectors with a managerial background. Mid 2018, the Mortality Research Committee consists of the following members: B.L. de Boer AAG, chair drs. C.A.M. van Iersel AAG CERA, secretary prof. dr. B. Melenberg drs. J. de Mik CFA AAG dr. H.J. Plat AAG RBA drs. E.J. Slagter FRM prof. dr. ir. M.H. Vellekoop ir. R.E.J.M. Waucomont AAG ir. drs. M.R. van der Winden AAG MBA AG Projections Life Tables Working Group The Mortality Research Committee set up the Association’s Projections Life Tables Working Group at the end of 2012 with the task of supporting the Committee in the development of projection tables. Mid 2018, the Working Group consists of the following members: W.G. Ouburg MSc AAG FRM (chair) F. van Berkum PhD drs. K.K. Keijzer AAG M.J.A. Klein MSc AAG ir. drs. J.H. Tornij W. van Wel MSc M. van der Werf MSc AAG M.A. van Wijk MSc AAG K. Wittekoek MSc 1 – Prognosetafel AG2014 of 9 september 2014. Projection Table AG2018 In performing its task, the Working Group has carried out various analyses to obtain Projections Life Table AG2018. While deepening the Working Group’s insights, these analyses have not yielded any model adjustments. The CSO has validated the Projections Life Table as set by the Working Group. Justification 5
7 Online Touch Home