Table 3.1 lists the effects of the new projections table. It shows that life expectancy at birth is reduced by about one year for both men and women. The remaining life expectancy at age 65 drops by about six months. Model change is the main cause of the downward adjustment of the prognosis. The impact of adding new mortality data is much smaller. Cohort life expectancy in 2021 AG2018 Model change Adding new data AG2020 At birth Male 90.2 -0.8 -0.1 89.3 Table 3.1 Cohort life expectancy in 2021 The conclusion is that life expectance is still expected to rise in the future, but at a lower rate compared to Projections Life Table AG2018. For a variety of model funds, chapter 7 presents calculations of the impact of the implemented changes on provisions and premium levels. For an average fund, the provision will drop by around 2 per cent at a 1% interest rate. Table 3.2 breaks down the impact of replacing AG2018 by AG2020 for an average model portfolio into two steps. Impact TP 1% interest Male Model change Data update -1.6% -0.5% Average Female -1.4% -0.8% Total -2.1% -2.2% Table 3.2 Impact on technical provision for an average model portfolio at a 1% interest rate It shows that more than two thirds of the reduction in technical provision is explained by the model change. The impact on the premium exceeds that of the provision. This is related to a longer average projection horizon. The premium drops by 2.5 to 3 per cent at a 1% interest rate. The expected development of the State Pension retirement age and standard retirement age using the latest insights based on Projections Life Table AG2020 and the Outline agreement of June 5th, 2019 is summarised in graph 3.1 We wish to emphasise that the actual increase of the State Pension retirement age and standard retirement age is linked to the estimates of Statistics Netherlands (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, CBS) and these values are to be regarded as indicative. Female 92.7 -0.6 -0.4 91.7 Male 20.5 -0.5 0.0 20.0 At age 65 Female 23.3 -0.2 -0.2 22.9 Projections Life Table AG2020 Summary 9
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