Males Females 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 2018 2019 2020 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 0 1 5 9 1317212529 3337 414549 2018 2019 2020 Graph 8.2 Aggregated weekly mortality in Germany, France, the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands in 2018, 2019 and the first 21 weeks of 2020 Graph 8.3 presents the same information broken down by country, showing major differences in terms of excess mortality and below average mortality. The German data shows large excess mortality observed in 2018 due to the influenza wave in that year, while 2020 to date shows no notable excess mortality due to Covid-19. Other countries do show clear Covid-19 related excess mortality. Note also that in France and the UK there was hardly any excess mortality in 2018 caused by influenza. The sensitivity analysis for the impact of Covid-19 was done by augmenting the AG2020 data for Europe (through 2018) and the Netherlands (through 2019) with so called virtual data points extending to the end of 2020. The data to do this are not available or not complete yet, so extrapolation was used as required to determine excess or undermortality compared to the AG2020 mortality forecast. Weekly CBS mortality data12 up to and including week 21 was used, plus preliminary data from the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations dataset in the Human Mortality Database (as shown in graph 8.3). Two possible assumptions in the extrapolation were analysed: • Current observed excess mortality The assumption that mortality in the Netherlands and in Europe in the remainder of 2020 (i.e. from week 22 onwards) will develop according to the AG2020 forecast from earlier chapters and no further excess or below-average mortality will occur. • Double the observed excess mortality The assumption that for the weeks after week 21 in 2020 the same total excess or below-average mortality will be recorded (in number of deaths) as in the period up to week 21. This effectively doubles excess mortality in 2020. 12 – A special query was submitted to CBS to be able to use more detailed mortality data by age and by week. We thank the CBS staff involved for their help and quick delivery of the data. Projections Life Table AG2020 In addition to virtual data points for deaths virtual data points for exposures were construed, using population and migration data from Eurostat and projections based on AG2020. Having added the virtual exposures and deaths, the usual calibration method for the model can be applied. In time, the virtual data point now surrounded by much uncertainty will be replaced by actual data points. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic 36
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