8.4 Results of the sensitivity analysis Table 8.1 lists the results of the sensitivity analysis under the assumptions outlined in the previous paragraph. The numbers are cohort life expectancies at birth and at age 65 in 2021 after recalibration of the model with the new, virtual data points. Adding that new data, representing excess mortality for many ages, will shift both the European trend and the Dutch deviation, leading to new life expectancy best estimates. Cohort life expectancy in 2021 AG2020 Current excess mortality Double excess mortality At birth Males 89.3 88.6 87.9 Females 91.7 91.3 91.0 At age 65 Males 20.0 19.6 19.2 Females 22.9 22.7 22.5 Table 8.1 Cohort life expectancies in 2021 based on AG2020, the current excess and below average mortality in 2020 and doubled excess and under-mortality in 2020 Difference relative to AG2020 Cohort life expectancy 2021 Current excess mortality Double excess mortality Male -0.68 -1.37 At birth Female -0.41 -0.73 Male -0.44 -0.87 At age 65 Female -0.19 -0.33 Table 8.2 Difference in cohort life expectancies in 2021 relative to AG2020, based on the current excess and below average mortality in 2020 and doubled excess and below average mortality in 2020 The effect observed in graphs 8.1 and 8.2 that a relatively high number of men die of Covid-19 clearly returns in table 8.1 The effect for men exceeds women by 50 to 150 per cent. We also note that doubling the excess and under-mortality observed to date also doubles the drop. For women this factor is a bit smaller. The sensitivity of the pension scheme provisions can be tentatively assessed by looking at the cohort life expectancies for 65-year-olds. We see that these drop by 2.2 and 0.8% for men and women respectively under the first assumption and by 4.3 and 1.5% under the second. In reality the effects on provisions will be mitigated by interest and by survivor’s pensions. 8.5 Future forecasts CBS and RIVM are working to increase the availability of reliable data on the impact of Covid-19. The Committee, in collaboration with the Working Group, will continue its efforts to include new data in future forecasts. We stress again that calculations around the impact of Covid-19 are currently of a highly speculative nature. Much will depend on the effects turning out to be structural or only temporary. The sensitivity analyses given above need to be assessed in this context. This being the case, the Committee is of the opinion that the AG2020 forecast as outlined in previous chapters provides the best possible assessment at this moment. For this reason too, only the model parameters and mortality probabilities for that forecast are published; the sensitivity analysis is not part of the AG2020 model. In the course of 2021 an update will be published if and when new developments give cause to do so. Projections Life Table AG2020 The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic 38
40 Online Touch Home