CONTENTS 1 Preface – 5 2 Justification – 7 3 Summary – 8 4 Introduction Projections Life Table AG2020 – 12 4.1 Why does AG develop a projection model for mortality probabilities? – 12 4.2 How does the model work? – 12 4.3 What happened since the release of Projections Life Table AG2018? – 13 4.4 Publication of Projections Life Tables on the AG website – 13 5 Data – 14 5.1 Dutch and European data are input for the Projection model AG2020 – 14 5.2 European mortality data: countries with an above-average GDP – 14 5.3 Data range – 15 5.4 Observed mortality has increased in recent years – 16 5.5 Data sources: Human Mortality Database, Eurostat and CBS – 16 6 The projection model – 18 6.1 Model assumptions unchanged – 18 6.2 Adjusted model assumptions – 19 6.3 Effects of adjustments made – 21 6.4 Parameter estimates – 21 7 Results – 26 7.1 Definitions of life expectancy – 26 7.2 Observations with respect to Projections Life Table AG2018 – 26 7.3 From AG2018 to AG2020 – 28 7.4 Projections in perspective – 28 7.5 Link between life expectancy at age 65 and 1st and 2nd pillar retirement age – 30 7.6 Effects on provisions – 31 8 The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic – 34 8.1 Effects in the Netherlands already observed – 34 8.2 Possible long-term effects – 35 8.3 Sensitivity analysis – 35 8.4 Results of the sensitivity analysis – 38 8.5 Future forecasts – 38 Appendices – 39 Appendix A - Projection model AG2020 – 40 Appendix B – Model portfolios Technical provisions – 49 Appendix C – Literature and data used – 51 Appendix D – Glossary – 53 Projections Life Table AG2020 Contents 3
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