Dutch market for Logistics real estate - Report 2020 Take-up of logistics space by building type in m2 500,000 1,000,000 1, 500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 0 existing buildings new developments Take-up of logistics space by region in m2 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 0 New-build even more dominant As supply of good-quality existing buildings dries up, demand for new developments remains strong from both occupiers and investors. • Take-up of existing buildings decreased sharply ( 13.7%) • Take-up of new-build properties still grew ( 5.3%) 2018 2019 Supply of logistics space by building type in m2 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 0 (year-end) West overtakes South The growth of e-commerce and B2C deliveries leads to a shift of the centre of gravity toward the west. This is exemplified by the largest deal of 2019, Zalando in Bleiswijk. • Take-up in Randstad area higher than in the south • Highest share in take-up for region Rotterdam-The Hague • South suffering from decreasing supply of both existing and new-build options at popular locations Spec developments boost supply With ever-falling yields, strong demand for high-quality buildings and drying-up of building plots, more and more developments are started speculatively. • Supply of existing buildings 9%, new buildings 43% • Supply of new buildings now more than 1 million m² existing buildings new developments Supply of logistics space as percentage of stock 10 11 12 4 5 6 7 8 9 Lease prices rising in some areas, but not everywhere Higher lease prices have been realized in Rotterdam, Tilburg, Utrecht and Venlo, where good-quality supply is tight. However in Roosendaal, Bergen op Zoom and Schiphol/Amsterdam, where market conditions are not as tight, lease prices stabilized. OUTLOOK 2020 Our initially positive outlook for 2020 must be adjusted as a result of Covid-19. A decline in bo h take-up and investment volume seems inevitable. For he mid- and long-term, our outlook for this market remains positive. Consumer spending and international trade may go down, however e-commerce is undergoing an acceleration and investors will return to this less vulnerable real-estate segment. PS: The recent global threat from the COVID-19 (Corona) virus may upset predictions, however at this time it is too early to draw conclusions. We do not feel that the slight decrease in take-up is a clear sign of a weakening market. Although supply is under threat of regulations (nitrogen) and political views (verdozing), demand remains healthy. E-commerce will continue to mature and economic growth is still positive. Also, investors’ appetite will remain strong, thus enabling attractive lease conditions. OCCUPIER MARKET Take-up stabilizes After six years of continuous growth, take-up appears to have reached a peak at 3.2 million m², nearly equal to 2018. • Decreasing supply of good-quality warehouses and building plots at popular locations is taking its toll • Outlook for 3PLs is mixed 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Arnhem / Nijmegen Utrecht Other regions Amsterdam / Schiphol / Almere East Brabant / Limburg West- / Middle Brabant Rotterdam / The Hague
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