THE POWER OF SMALL DATA D door Servaas Houben “ ata! Data! Data! he cried impatiently. I can't make bricks without clay.” Sherlock Holmes in The Adventure of the Copper Beeches Like most actuaries I love data! Nothing makes me more excited than coming to a robust conclusion based on solid data analysis. I hence cannot agree more with W. Edwards Deming’s quote “Without data you're just another person with an opinion”. The current developments in Solvency II in which companies have to back up their choices for internal model parameters with (internal) data is excellent: instead of using “expert judgment” companies are forced to reconsider their prejudices and use data to motivate their model parameters. Actuaries, just like Sherlock Holmes, prefer data instead of gut feeling. However another famous quote of the great detective was the following: Watson: "I can see nothing, said I, handing it back to my friend.” Holmes: “On the contrary, Watson, you can see everything. You fail, however, to reason from what you see. You are too timid in drawing your inferences.“ Sherlock Holmes in The Adventure of the Blue Carbuncle AG_BLOGS _2015_2016
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