6 MORTALITY DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS OF THE MODEL 6.1 Mortality data Mortality data for the Netherlands and Europe The point of departure for the present model is the stochastic model, introduced two years ago. This means that, in addition to mortality in the Netherlands, use was also made of data regarding the development of mortality in a number of other European countries. From 1970 onwards, the differences in mortality probabilities between a number of European countries have clearly decreased. In addition, a rising trend is observable in the development of life expectancy in these countries. In this regard, see graphs 1 and 2. For this reason, it was decided to base the projection for the Netherlands on the developments in comparable European countries. This ensures that the projection will not depend exclusively on data relating to the Netherlands, in which specific fluctuations may have occurred in the past, which do not necessarily say anything about future developments. The assumption is that the long-term increase in life expectancy in the Netherlands can be predicted more precisely by including a broader European population. The successive projections are also expected to be more stable than they would be if only data pertaining to the Netherlands were assumed. European mortality data The projection model makes use of European mortality data of countries whose Gross Domestic Product (GDP) lies above the European average. GDP is regarded as a measure of the wealth of a country. There is a positive correlation between prosperity and ageing: the higher the level of wealth, the older people become. The Netherlands is amongst the countries whose level of wealth is high and whose GDP is above the European average. On the basis of this criterion, the mortality data of the following European countries were included: Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, Ireland, Iceland, Luxembourg, Norway, Austria, United Kingdom, Sweden and Switzerland. Where mention is made in the remainder of this publication to Europe or West Europe, these countries are meant. Relative to Projection Table AG2014, two amendments have been made to the data in addition to supplementing the data with recent data. Instead of only including England and Wales, it was decided to include the United Kingdom as a whole. The selection criterion is based on countries in Europe with an above-average GDP. The GDP for separate countries within the United Kingdom cannot be derived easily, but it is possible to derive GDP for the United Kingdom as a whole. This means extending the dataset to include Northern Ireland and Scotland, as part of the United Kingdom. In addition, it was decided to include the mortality figures of the former East Germany from 1990 onwards (because East Germany became part of Germany from that moment onwards). As a result of these changes, the dataset has been extended, while the average observed life expectancy in the dataset has fallen slightly. Projection Table AG2016 Mortality data and assumptions of the model 12
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