Observed/expected mortality, males 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Deaths 2016 Observed/expected mortality 2016 Deaths 2017 Observed/expected mortality 2017 Graph 6.3 Observed mortality divided by expected mortality based on AG2016, males Observed/expected mortality, females 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Deaths 2016 Observed/expected mortality 2016 Deaths 2017 Observed/expected mortality 2017 Graph 6.4 Observed mortality divided by expected mortality based on AG2016, females Graph 6.3 shows that for males the observed mortality probabilities between ages 65 and 85 are lower than expected based on Projections Life Table AG2016. Over age 85 they are higher than expected. For females there is higher than expected mortality upwards of age 60, see graph 6.4. The higher mortality is the result of, among other causes, more influenza fatalities. During the 2016/2017 influenza season almost 8,000 more people died than expected (Teirlinck et al., 2017). It is likely that this ‘excess mortality’ is related to influenza2. 2 – https://www. volksgezondheidenzorg. info/onderwerp/ influenza/cijferscontext/sterfte#nodesterfte-3 3 – https://www. cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/ 2018/07/meersterfgevallen-inwintermaanden Projection Table AG2018 The higher than average influenza related mortality in recent years does not occur in The Netherlands only, it is the same in other European countries as well3. A strong increase or decrease in mortality in The Netherlands quite often coincides with a strong increase or decrease in other European countries. This is demonstrated in the bar chart in diagram 6.1. Represented in it are death frequencies in The Netherlands and in Europe. It shows that for men mortality in the years 2015 and 2016 for ages over 65 exceeded mortality in previous years. For women this effect is evident mainly in The Netherlands. 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 500 0 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 500 0 Mortality data and model assumptions 14
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