3 CONTENTS 1 Preface –3 2 Justification –5 3 Contents –7 4 Summary –8 5 Introduction Projections Life Table AG2018 –10 5.1 Why does AG develop a projection model for mortality probabilities? – 10 5.2 How does the model work? – 10 5.3 What happened since the release of Projections Life Table AG2016? – 11 5.4 Definitions of life expectancy – 11 5.5 Publication of Projections Life Tables on the AG website – 11 6 Mortality data and model assumptions –12 6.1 Dutch and European mortality – 12 6.2 Model assumptions – 15 6.3 Research – 16 6.4 Summary of changes and research Projections Life Table AG2018 – 18 7 Uncertainty –19 7.1 Parameter uncertainty – 19 7.2 The effect of the choice of model – 20 7.3 Alternative parameterisation of the model – 21 7.4 Consistency over time – 21 8 Results –22 8.1 Observations with respect to Projections Life Table AG2016 – 22 8.2 From AG2016 to AG2018 – 23 8.3 Future cohort life expectancy – 24 8.4 Projections in perspective – 24 8.5 Link between life expectancy at age 65 and 1st and 2nd tier retirement age– 25 8.6 Effects on provisions – 27 9 Applications of the model –29 9.1 Simulations for life expectancy – 30 9.2 Simulations for obligations – 31 9.3 Simulations for life expectancy over a one-year horizon – 33 9.4 Simulations for the best estimate over a one-year horizon – 35 10 Appendices –37 Appendix A - Projection model AG2018 - Technical description – 38 Appendix B – Model portfolio – 47 Appendix C – Literature and data used – 49 Appendix D – Glossary – 51 Projection Table AG2018 Contents 7
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