4 SUMMARY By publishing Projections Life Table AG2018 AG presents its most recent estimation of future mortality of the Dutch population to date. This estimation is based on mortality data from both The Netherlands and European countries of similar prosperity. Projections Life Table AG2018 replaces Projections Life Table AG2016. The most important features of the Projections Life Table AG2018 are: • It is based on a stochastic model, enabling pension funds and life insurers to also estimate the uncertainty around the forecast. This is essential in pricing financial derivatives and in setting buffers to be held in connection with mortality uncertainty. • In addition to historical mortality in The Netherlands, Projections Life Table AG2018 also uses mortality data from selected European countries with similar prosperity levels. This combination of data leads to a stable model less sensitive to random aberrations in the Dutch data for any one year. • Projections Life Table AG2018 can be used to estimate mortality levels far into the future. Expected future developments in mortality can be factored into calculations of life expectancy and provisions. The model specifications being unchanged, the changes of Projections Life Table AG2018 as compared to Projections Life Table AG2016 are caused solely by the addition of new mortality data from The Netherlands and Europe. Most notably for higher age groups, the past two years have shown higher mortality than expected based on Projections Life Table AG2016. This explains the drop in the expected life expectancy increase based on AG2018 in comparison with AG2016. Life expectancy at birth in 2019 Period life expectancy Cohort life expectancy based on AG2016 Cohort life expectancy based on AG2018 Decrement Table 4.1 Life expectancy at birth The conclusion is that the Dutch are still reaching higher ages, but that the expected increase has fallen in comparison with Projections Life Table AG2016. Based on the latest insights the life expectancy of a girl born in 2019 is 92.5 years and of a boy born in 2019 Projection Table AG2018 Summary 8 Male 80.6 90.4 90.0 0.4 Female 83.9 93.3 92.5 0.8
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