8 THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC The AG2020 forecast is based on European data until 2018 and Dutch data until 2019. This means that the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are not included in the estimations of mortality probabilities and life expectancies. In this chapter we discuss the possible impact of the pandemic on the forecast and we argue why the Committee feels that AG2020 at this time is the best possible estimation of future mortality. 8.1 Effects in the Netherlands already observed At the time of writing this publication (August 2020) the spread of Covid-19 in Europe has been pushed back after the spike early in the year as a result of all the measures taken. A resurgence of the number of cases is however visible, giving rise to new localised restrictions. The World Health Organisation (WHO) warns that the worldwide pandemic is far from over. At the presentation of this report more weeks will have gone by and the situation may be quite different again. Males 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 500 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 2018 2019 2020 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 500 0 1 5 9 1317212529 3337 414549 2018 2019 Graph 8.1 Mortality in the Netherlands by week in 2018, 2019 and 2020 Projections Life Table AG2020 The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic 34 2020 Females
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