It is already apparent that in the first half of 2020 Covid-19 has caused more deaths than the previous years’ average. Graph 8.1 demonstrates this10. We observe that in years with an influenza epidemic the number of deaths exceed historical averages as well. During the flu epidemic of 2017/2018 for instance, the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en milieu, RIVM) reported an excess mortality of over 9,000 cases11. The effect of the influenza epidemic in the spring of 2018 shows clearly in the graph. 8.2 Possible long-term effects Actuarial forecasting has a number of specific properties and targets that sets them apart from other forecasts. For one, the extended time horizon adds to the importance of distinguishing between incidental and structural effects. It is also upon the actuary to make every estimation as objective as possible and to justify any subjective assumptions as clearly as possible. At this time, predictions about the impact of the Covid-19 virus on future mortality rates and life expectancies are highly speculative. There are many uncertainties around the spread of the virus, in addition to which very little reliable data about the impact to date is available. Moreover, data from different countries is often incompatible because of variations in dealing with Covid-19, in areas such as testing policy, prevention measures and the available health care capacity. In years to come the full impact of Covid-19 on long-term life expectancy will emerge. At this point in time it is difficult to assess if the Covid-19 related excess mortality will be structural. If a vaccine is found offering permanent protections, the number of victims will drop sharply from then on. If persons dying from corona in general had a lower life expectancy than their peers, the impact will be further reduced. It may also be the case that elderly person who survive the virus have an above average resilience and therefore have a higher life expectancy. However, if there is permanent damage to the lungs or other organs after recovering from the infection, this could indicate a lower remaining life expectancy. And if the care for patients with other afflictions is impaired because hospitals get overwhelmed, that too will have a major impact on mortality. 10 – Data source: The Short-term Mortality Fluctuations in the Human Mortality Database, www.mortality.org. The Dutch data in that database are provided by CBS. 11 – Data source Reukers et al. (2019), Annual report Surveillance of influenza and other respiratory infections in the Netherlands: Winter 2018/2019, RIVM. Projections Life Table AG2020 All in all, very little can be said about the consequences for life expectancy in 2021 and beyond. Therefore, the choice was made not to make adjustments to the AG2020 forecast, which is based on data until January 1st, 2020, for the time being. In the Committee’s opinion this forecast represents the best possible estimate at this point in time. Nonetheless, in the following paragraphs the results of a sensitivity analysis is presented to get a first impression of the impact of excess mortality in 2020 on life expectancies in 2021. 8.3 Sensitivity analysis For the projections life table AG2020 the Dutch deviation from a European trend is estimated, which is why we include observed excess or below-average mortality in other countries in this sensitivity analysis. Due to limited availability of data the sensitivity analysis only includes data from Germany, France, the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands. On aggregate, these countries represent 83% of the European exposures normally used. The aggregated weekly mortality in these countries can be found in graph 8.2 for 2018, 2019 and the first 21 weeks of 2020. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic 35
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