3 SUMMARY By publishing Projections Life Table AG2020 AG presents its most recent estimation of future mortality of the Dutch population to date. This estimation is based on mortality data from both the Netherlands and European countries of similar prosperity. Projections Life Table AG2020 replaces Projections Life Table AG2018. The most important features of the Projections Life Table AG2020 are: • Projections Life Table AG2020 can be used to estimate mortality levels far into the future. Expected future developments in mortality can be factored into calculations of life expectancy and provisions. • In addition to historical mortality in the Netherlands, Projections Life Table AG2020 also uses mortality data from selected European countries with similar prosperity levels. This combination of data leads to a stable model less sensitive to random aberrations in the Dutch data for any one year. • Projections Life Table AG2020 is based on a stochastic model, enabling pension funds and life insurers to also estimate the uncertainty of the forecast. After the publication of AG2018 various analyses were conducted in preparation of Projections Life Table AG2020. These were partly driven by questions and suggestions from the profession. With the analyses further refinements of the model were tested. The selection of the AG2020 model was based on a number of science-based statistical model selection criteria. Model outcomes must be plausible as well as explicable. Stability and robustness of the model are important factors too. Finally, coherence is an important criterion, meaning that future mortality in the Netherlands and the selected European countries will not diverge significantly. All this has resulted in two model adjustments, which are explained in detail in chapter 6. Both adjustments relate to the modelling of the Dutch deviation from the European countries: 1. Constants are added to the modelling of the Dutch deviation for both men and women. This means that the time series that describe the differences between the Netherlands and other countries converge to non-zero numbers. 2. The modelling of the Dutch deviation no longer used data from 1970 onwards, but instead data from 1983 onwards. Dutch data from 1970 is still used in the modelling of the European mortality trend. The changes of Projections Life Table AG2020 as compared to Projections Life Table AG2018 are caused by (1) the two aforementioned model adjustments and (2) the addition of new mortality data from The Netherlands and Europe. Projections Life Table AG2020 Summary 8
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